報告題目：The 1978 English Boarding School Influenza Outbreak: Where the Classic Seir Model Fails
報告人：何岱海 副教授
報告時間：2024年5月13日（星期一）下午15:00-16:00
報告地點：卓越樓810會議室
報告摘要：Previous work has failed to fit classic epidemic models satisfactorily to the prevalence data of the famous English boarding school 1978 influenza A/H1N1 outbreak during the children’s pandemic. We built a susceptible (S) - exposed (E) - infectious (I) - confined to bed (B) - convalescent (C) - recovered (R) model with time delay in E and I compartments and multistage in B and C compartments. We simultaneously fitted the reported B and C prevalence curves as well as the attack rate (proportion of children infected during the outbreak). The model is based on delay differential equations and dummy subgroups to reproduce the non-exponential residence times, which was crucial for good fits. The estimates of the generation time and the basic reproductive number (R0) appear to be biologically reasonable. Our model has laid a base for further studies.
報告人簡介: Dr He is an Associate Professor of the Department of Applied Mathematics at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. He earned a Ph.D. in Engineering from Xi’an Jiaotong University in 1999 and a Ph.D. in Mathematics from McMaster University in Canada in 2006. He also did post-doctoral research in Beijing Normal University (China), University of Michigan (USA), and Tel Aviv University (Israel). His main research interests are infectious disease modelling and statistical analysis of medical data. More than 140 papers have been published in journals such as PNAS, Science Advances, Annals of Internal Medicine, European Respiratory Journal, Journal of the Royal Society Interface. According to Stanford University report, Dr He is among top 2% scientists in 2021 and 2022.