報告題目：Detection of infection sources for avian influenza A(H7N9) in live poultry transport network during the fifth wave in China（中國第五次禽流感流行期間現實禽運輸網絡中甲型H7N9禽流感傳染源的檢測）
報告人：靳禎教授 （山西大學復雜系統研究所）
報告時間：2019年3月18日（星期一）下午16:00-17:00
報告地點：必一体育平台二樓會議室
報告摘要：Numerous studies have demonstrated that exposure to live poultry or live poultry market is the significant risk factor for human beings infected with A(H7N9). However, the issue about which explicit live poultry markets are the infection sources of the A(H7N9) human cases, has not been explored so far. In this paper, we extract the data associated with poultry farm, live poultry market and farmers' market from BaiDu Map API by writing JavaScript language, and then construct the live poultry transport network. The A(H7N9) transmission model based on probabilistic discrete-time Markov chains is established. On the basis of the obtained network and model, we propose space-time backward detection and forward transmission algorithm to detect the most likely infection sources and compute the first arrival time of infection sources, and then analyze their characteristics. The results reveal that, besides live poultry market, backyard poultry is also contribute to A(H7N9) human infections and the risk of it is high especially in the fifth wave in the newly infected provinces. Furthermore, we give the most likely spread map of A(H7N9) virus along live poultry transport network. In particular, by analyzing the temperature characteristics on arrival time of infection sources, we find that the survival and infection risk of A(H7N9) virus is high, moderate and low when the temperature is 9˚C~19˚C, 0˚C~9˚C or 19˚C~25˚C, and < 0˚C or > 25˚C, respectively. Our discovery suggests that strengthening supervision and immunization for live poultry market and backyard poultry at temperature 9˚C~19˚C, will be effective to bring avian influenza A(H7N9) under control in the future.
靳禎教授簡介：靳禎，山西大學二級教授。現任山西省數學會理事長，中國生物數學學會副理事長，中國數學會理事，SCI源刊Plos One、International J. Biomathematics等編委，美國《Mathematical Reviews》評論員，德國《數學文摘》評論員。曾獲教育部新世紀優秀人才、山西省教學名師、全國優秀教師等榮譽，享受國務院政府特殊津貼。目前是山西省科技創新團隊帶頭人，山西省“疾病防控的數學技術與大數據分析”重點實驗室主任。多次參加國家自然科學獎、國家重點研發項目及國家基金數理學部項目的會評。主要從事生物數學及復雜網絡研究工作，先後主持國家自然基金數理學部、信息學部項目共6項，其中國家基金重點項目1項。作為第一完成人2010年獲得山西省科學技術獎（自然科學類）一等獎、2014年獲得教育部高等學校優秀成果二等獎（自然科學類）。