報告題目：人群接觸結構是甲型流感反復流行的重要因素（Host Contact Structure is Important for the Recurrence of Influenza A）
報告時間：2018年5月19日（星期六）下午2:00-3：00
報告地點：必一体育平台二樓會議室
報告人：馬君嶺,加拿大維多利亞大學（University of Victoria ）數學與統計系助理教授。1994年於西安交通大學應用數學專業本科畢業，1997年獲西安交通大學應用數學碩士，2003年獲普林斯頓大學（Princeton University）應用數學博士學位，師從美國科必一院士Simon Levin教授，主要從事傳染病建模與控製研究。
報告摘要：An important characteristic of influenza A is its ability to escape host immunity through antigenic drift. A novel influenza A strain that causes a pandemic confers full immunity to infected individuals, yet because of antigenic drift, these individuals have decreased immunity to drifted strains. We compute the required decrease in immunity so that a recurrence is possible. Models for influenza A must make assumptions on the contact structure on which the disease spreads. By determining the local stability of the disease free equilibrium via the reproduction number, we show that the classical random mixing assumption predicts an unrealistically large decrease of immunity before a recurrence is possible. We improve over the classical random mixing assumption by incorporating a contact network structure. A complication of contact networks is correlations induced by the initial pandemic. Thus in this presentation, we provide a novel analytic derivation of such correlations and show that contact networks may require a dramatically smaller drop in immunity before recurrence. Hence, the key new insight in our work is that on contact networks the establishment of a new strain is possible for much higher immunity levels of previously infected individuals than predicted by the commonly used random mixing assumption. This suggests that stable contacts like classmates, coworkers and family members are a crucial path for the spread of influenza in human population.
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